What this teaches

Altman observes that the best investments he's made were rounds nobody else wanted, and the hottest, most oversubscribed seed rounds mostly produced mediocre outcomes. Explains why consensus and quality are inversely correlated at seed.

Why it matters

Consoles and arms every founder whose round isn't 'hot': the best companies often looked bad first.

Key lessons

Read the original Black Swan Seed Rounds Sam Altman · blog.samaltman.com